The Zardari rule of Mr. 10% is coming to end.According to most of observers this rule was full of in efficiency, corruption, mismanagement etc.The Supreme court was against the regime from the beginning and an able PM in the form of Gillani was removed on its diktat.
Then there was the Memo gate and Osama raid, Salala pass incident and so many other crisis. Even recently the new PM was ordered to be arrested by the Supreme court and there was this long march to Islamabad by a Canadian Cleric Quadri who extracted a Lahore declaration which gave immense powers to the election commission.This cleric was part of the Musharaff team as well as a darling of Western powers due to his diktat against terrorism, seems to have no effect on the worry of western powers and the establishment.
They wanted the election to be postponed. They wanted their own man as Interim head and inspite of all this being given still the western powers seem to be apprehensive about the coming election. Why?
This regime has achieved one significant thing that the hard won Democracy should be preserved at all cost which is approved by both the ruling coalition as well as all the opposition parties.They also made a significant consensus document about foreign policy to be followed.with regard to USA, and all other powers.
There was also a significant document which came out of the Army establishment which called for the first time that the no 1 enemy of Pakistan is NOT India but Terrorism which is home grown. This made the powers to be to see red as a continuous enmity between the two nuclear neighbors should be preserved at all costs which alone can ensure defanging the nuclear deterrence of these two. They used their Indian ruling class, Army as well as media to whip up emotions due to LOC incidents from 6th Dec in which an Indian soldier was beheaded. Though this was gruesome, what was significant was the role Indian Army brass played in this episode along with media without caring for Geo-political considerations. But what was equally significant was the maturity shown by Pakistan ruling class.opposition and media which kept a low profile.
The Americans want a withdrawal from Afghanistan which will be orderly but which will also leave the country at the mercy of Taliban who are not that well disposed towards Pakistan. Pakistan is desperately trying to stitch a a sort of coalition between Taliban and the Northern alliance. But all this require a regime in Pakistan which is on the same wave length as USA.
The 5% ruling clique in any south Asian country includes the Politicos, Army brass and committed bureaucracy and judiciary. The next 2% are the Big fat cats from Industry and business who fund the ruling 5% but stay in the back ground.
Next comes the vociferous educated middle class who control the thoughts and minds of politics by doing long march, writing letters, social media,taking part in visual media debates etc.But this class never stand in sun and Q and vote.
But the most significant 73% which consist of the farmers, landless poor, Kulaks, urban poor and all those who yearn for some education , health care, peace and some form of work. How the last group will vote is the question which is nagging the minds of experts and seminarians in western countries as well as neighbors.
PPP, ANP and MQM seem to be confident as also PML(N) and also the Party of Imran which is the darling of the 20%. What is significant is the eager expectation of the bottom 73% which may be experiencing for the first time an orderly transfer of power in the entire history of Pakistan.
This is what Democracy is all about and we in India are also waiting to see this orderly transfer of power as this will ensure peace in the subcontinent as Democratic regimes rarely fight.