The Pakistani Spectator

The exasperated American surge-and-exit strategy reflects the increased frustration of the western alliance resulting out of its failure in bringing stability to Afghanistan. The exit part of any military strategy surly materializes successfully however, the stability part post withdrawal or exit of the affected country always remained dicey and similarly in case of Afghanistan, the case would not be any different as the exit would not yield any long term stability. To add to the frustration, the Dutch government’s debacle over the issue of withdrawal of its forces from Afghanistan, indicate the mood of the western public over the issue. Also, the fact that no other country has come forward to-date to replace the Dutch forces in Afghanistan makes it evident that the withdrawal will be there soon. The withdrawal though, may portray America as weak but it has no choice since prolonging the stay any more would still tantamount to weakness any way. The withdrawal of the foreign forces may not be wholesome but in parts over five to six years. Still, one might see presence of a few thousands of them at the end, typically on the lines of Iraqi, withdrawal.

However, in the time leading up to the phased withdrawal, there are more fervent public voices calling for immediate withdrawal of their respective forces from Afghanistan. Amongst the rising tide of like minded people in favour of withdrawal, there are some lonely voices too that are heard on and off calling for continuation of deployment of Western forces in Afghanistan. This segment of the society is skeptical of post withdrawal scenario in Afghanistan.

The apprehensions on the withdrawal are many. The most important geopolitical repercussion of the withdrawal being cited would be the perception that America stands defeated in the long drawn Afghan war. The others include the perception that the withdrawal will lead to the Taliban returning to power in Afghanistan, the Taliban allowing al-Qaeda renewed access to the country, and al-Qaeda making use of Afghanistan to successfully attack the West again.

The withdrawal will have its implications on Pakistan too and as such, it must prepare itself to confront all challenges emerging out of the event and exert its weight in stabilizing the situation in Afghanistan. This will be all the more difficult as other countries like India and Iran will ,also be vying to get some stakes in Afghanistan upon withdrawal of foreign forces from there. Some of the scenarios that might develop out of the situation then would be discussed hereafter in this article.

The Northern Alliance would continue to be supported by Russia, India and Iran in the post withdrawal Afghanistan. The Pashtuns who ruled Afghanistan for over 200 years, having been denied their due right in the Afghan polity under US occupation, would resist the dominance of the Northern Alliance with the tacit support of its war time friends for Kabul that may result in further blood shed. Pakistan may again face the burden of the refugees and a destabilized Afghanistan yet again which would be detrimental to its overall security.

Since there exists a lot of disparity within the Afghan society, the afghan strife will continue that may lead to formation of fresh alliances between the various Afghan factions to develop some equilibrium which resultantly prolong instability in Afghanistan. The interim period would be exploited by India to cement its foot hold in Afghan affairs much to the detriment of Pakistan’s interests.

The withdrawal may also encourage fundamentalists and extremists world over who may be inspired by the resilience of Afghans and their success in forcing foreign military powers out of their lands and as such adopt as means of achieving victories.

The perceptions amongst the Afghan Taliban that Pakistan has been siding with the Western forces against them may lead to their disenchantment with Pakistan and they may be inclined to work against its interests.

Pakistan does not enjoy very good relations with the Northern Alliance. As such, it will be difficult for it to negotiate an ultimate power sharing deal between the Northern Alliance and the Taliban, if it may try to at some point of time.

The United States on the lines of Iraqi withdrawal may leave some air elements behind in Afghanistan including the air jets and drones and continue using them against the Taliban to signal to the world that it has not abandoned Afghanistan. This situation will not provide any reprieve from the current situation that it confronts today.

Finally, to conclude, the United States and Pakistan now share a common vision for a stable Afghanistan. The stakes for both of them are very high. The United States understands the security concerns of Pakistan that emanate from across the border in Afghanistan, especially when India is in play there. It is no other country than Pakistan that can help Afghanistan, based on its centuries old relationship and personal affiliations with Afghans in capacity building and Afghanistan’s state institutions. Pakistan has the necessary expertise to undertake the development tasks. This arrangement will be acceptable to the common Afghan as well. Undoubtedly, Pakistan will be able to carryon these development tasks even after the departure of Americans. To ensure the Afghans that it will not turn its back this time; the United States must commit itself financially towards the development of infrastructure therein Afghanistan.