Punjab has got 55% representation in the National Assembly, whereas Sindh’s Quota is 25%, with NWFP with 15% and Balochistan with only 5%. So clearly whoever takes lead in Punjab is very hard to stop going to Islamabad, unless without any settlement.
Punjab’s situation is pretty much complex. All in all Punjab has remained the province of Pakistan Muslim League’s Province, and now as the Muslim League is divided into two factions, and the tremendous sympathy vote PPP Benazir Bhutto’s party is enjoying, the competition in Punjab has become tri-polar, despite of the fact that PPP and PML-N are coordinating in a cordial fashion.
In Punjab, urban areas like Lahore, Multan, Rawalpindi, Gujranwala, Faisalabad, Rahim Yar Khan, Bahwalpur and other are swayed towards PML-N, and there is every chance that PML-N would be a victor in these areas. PML-Q’s influence is largely in the rural areas of Punjab, where the literacy rate is low and people vote for the Biradar, and PML-N has also got huge influence in the rural areas too, especially in the Northern Punjab. PPP’s vote bank cannot be ignored too, especially in the south of Punjab, which is closer to Sindh.
Total seats of Punjab in National Assembly are 183, from which 148 are general seats and 35 are allocated for the women. According to the analysis of political pundits ,the surveys and the general mood of the populace, tentatively it could be said that PML-N would lead the Punjab with 120+ seats, while PML-Q would win around 35 to 40 and rest will be distributed among PPP and others.
Total seats of Punjab Assembly are 371, from which there are 297 general seats, 66 for women, and 8 for non-Muslims. From these 371 seats, PML-N is set to take 200+ seats, while PML-Q would be obtaining something like 70+ and rest will go to PPP and others.
So all in all PML-N is the party which dominates the most crucial and important province in Pakistan.