May be Tahir ul Qadri read the Brig(r) Junaid‘s article about strategic mistakes or he might have got the signal from Rawalpindi, he is planning his sit-in against the PML-N government. He is finalizing the location, and there are two options right now for him to stage that sit-in.
First the Punjab Assembly, and the other one is in Raiwind at Jati Umra, the residential estate of Sharif brothers. Pakistan People’s Party, PML-Q, PML-F, MQM, and covertly ANP are fervently backing Qadri on this too, and he has also got support of establishment. PTI is very eager to stage this sit-in. All are tilting towards staging this sit-in in front of Raiwind, because it would hit very hard at the core.
Already there is sheer and extreme criticism on Sharif brothers to build a palatial estate in Raiwind and there are unproved allegations of spending millions of rupees on that estate and the road leading to it and other infrastructure from the public exchequer. All the media campaign against Sharif always includes the mention of Raiwind and it’s wealth, and it symbolizes the Sharif empire.
If Qadri stages the sit-in, it would be akin to cornering the PML-N in their home, in their very core. They would forget the election campaign and would go on defensive. PPP would simply love it, and so will be other parties. PTI would use its full youth force to make that sit-in a success.
Now Qadri and company is waiting for the announcement of the caretaker setup and other measures. PML-N has already refused to accept any agreement or declaration between Qadri and PPP-led allies government. Qadri knows that PML-N would be his biggest obstacle and is sure to oppose his say. So as soon as PML-N opposes Qadri’s take, PPP would say to Qadri that they are unable to implement it as PML-N doesn’t agree. That would spark “instant” anger among the Qadri marchers, and they would immediately announce a short march against Raiwind.
The preparation of such short march are already underway, and that has been conveyed to the responsible of Minjah ul Quran. PPP doesn’t want to participate in that, but would fully facilitate it. PML-Q, PTI, and MQM would publicly participate in it. PML-N government is also aware of it, and they have almost decided to block any such march. It would highly likely ensue violent conflicts in Lahore and other major cities of Punjab, and it would mean suspension of elections, which is the ultimate task of Qadri.