The Pakistani Spectator

Although it is too early to be talking about this, and we are only about halfway through the time of government, which came into power after the last general election, but at the same time it will be interesting analysis of two major parties for their prospects in next general election.

The last general election had three major factors, which influenced its outcome. First, and which influenced the most, was the assassination of Benazir Bhutto. It generated a sympathetic wave for the party, and helped it come into power. Second Musharraf and his allies’ unpopularity. Third, lack of preparation time that PML-N had before elections.

Before we do analysis of next general elections, it is very important to keep in mind these three factors–especially since we are talking about Hazara and North-central Punjab.

Hazara division is the only division in Pakistan, where in 2008 election, PML-N won majority of nation assembly seats—and where it is not likely to repeat same kid of success again. In previous election, PML-N won 4 seats out of 7 from Hazara, PML-Q 2, and one by an Independent candidate.

If renaming of NWFP controversy hadn’t developed, PML-N would have been in position to not only keep the 4 seats it already won, but even win two more. Now, the situation has completely changed, and the only way it might win anything close to what it did earlier is if it promises something radical to its previous supporters in Hazara.

The northern most division in Punjab, to the south of Hazara division, is Rawalpindi. It is very important region because of its high literacy rate and relatively developed economic level. It includes Rawalpindi, Attock, Chakwal and Jhelum districts.  If we include Islamabad in this area, this area had total of 16 NA seats. In 2008 general elections, PML-N won 13, PPP won 2, and PML-Q won one.  PPP will be in serious danger when it comes to its two seats that it won here.  Raja Pervez Ashraf, current federal minister, came out winner in a 3-side race. He received 80,000 votes, PML-Q candidate received 71,000 votes, and PML-N candidate received 56,000 votes. If it had been two-side race, Raja Pervez Ashraf couldn’t have won. There was similar sort of situation in the other seat that PPP won in this division from Attock, it also involved a 3-side race, and PML-N and PML-Q vote splitting.

Gujranwala division is one of the largest divisions in Punjab. It includes Gujranwala, Sialkot, Gujrat, Hafizabad, Mandi Bahauddin, and Narowal districts. It had 22 NA seats in 2008 elections. Although it would be considered a stronghold of PML-N, but PML-N won only 13 seats out of 22 from here. PPP won 6, and PML-Q won 2, and an independent won 1. These 6 seats will be very important for PPP and they will be in serious threat in next election—especially 2 it won from Gujrat. PML-N would likely expand its number of seats in Gujranwala division.

As in previous two divisions, the similar trend continues, wherever PPP won, more than not, it involved 3-side race, with PML-N and PML-Q vote splitting. This was the case here in Sialkot as well, with another federal minister, firdos Ashiq Awan.

South of Gujranwala is Lahore, Kasur and Sheikhupura.  This area had 24 NA seats.  In previous election PML-N won 18 seats, PPP won 3, PML-Q won 1, an independent won 1 and one result was nullified.

Faisalabad division includes districts of Faisalabad, Toba Tek Singh, Jhang and Chiniot districts. It had total of 19 NA seats in previous election. PML-N won only 5, PPP won 6, and PML-Q won 7 and 1 won by an independent.  PML-Q was strongest here, and with its demise most of the seats will be up for grab. PPP had very strong showings from Faisalabad—despite its close proximity to Lahore.

Sargodha division includes districts of Sargodha, Khushab, Bhakkar and Mianwali. It is not as populated as previous divisions and had only 11 NA seats in previous election. PML-N won 2, PPP won 2, PML-Q won 3 and independents won 4.

There are still 50 or so NA seats left which are in South-central Punjab, which is considered traditional stronghold of PPP.

The area that I focused on is considered as traditional stronghold of PML-N.  This area had total of 99 NA seats in last election, PML-N won 55 out of 99, PPP won 19, and PML-Q won 16.  From direct general election in 2008, PPP won total of 87 seats in national assembly throughout Pakistan, PML-N 69, and PML-Q 41.  If PPP loses even half of those 19 seats that it won from North-central Punjab, it would be in serious trouble, it might very well lose more than half.  And as it is expected, if PML-N picks up even half of those that PML-Q has won, it would be in a very strong position.

The only seats that PML-N is likely to lose from this area, in next election, are from Hazara division.

There are very few areas in Pakistan, which have swing voters—voting for one party in one election—and voting for a different one in the next one. For example Urban Sindh will and has voted for MQM, and rural Sindh for PPP.

This makes those 19 PPP seats in north-central Punjab very important, if every other seat stays same as in 2008, the outcome of these 19 can and will decide who has the government in center.

The important thing to note here is that PPP is considered as a strong party in Southern Punjab, and it has still managed to pick up 19 very important seats from Northern Punjab.

The odds are all against PPP; only a miracle can help it win in next election, unless it radically changes its course.  PPP won those 19 and other seats based on the three factors mentioned above, none of that factor would be available in next election.

Hopefully people can stay patient enough for two more years, and let democracy take its course in next election. That’s the best way to defeat corruption and misgovernment.