The Pakistani Spectator

Today Pakistan is confronted with the energy crisis of the magnitude which was never experienced before. At the core of this crisis lies governments’ failure to timely develop new facilities to meet anticipated growing energy needs of the country. Besides governments’ apathy, instability in Baluchistan is also an important contributory factor. The province has sizable reserves of coal and natural gas. It is also believed that it also holds large untapped reserves of petroleum and thus has special importance in Pakistan’s energy profile. Pakistan’s economy is one of the world’s most natural gas dependent, accounting for about fifty percent of its total energy resource. Out of the proven natural gas reserves i.e. approximately 28 trillion cubic feet, about 19 trillion cubic feet that is 68% are located in Baluchistan. To transport this precious resource to the industrial units and urban centers Sui Southern Gas Company maintains about 27,542 kilometer of pipeline presenting a soft target to the miscreants. In the recent past number of attacks on the gas pipelines were also experienced.

Energy plays an important role in the national security of a country as it serves as a fuel for its economic engine. Any disruption in the energy infrastructure of a country can have serious effects on its economy. Such disruptions can be in shape of direct attacks on energy installations or can be in the form of law and order concerns created through occasional terrorist acts as is the case in Baluchistan. Besides US pressure, disturbance in Baluchistan has been one of the major impediments in the materialization of Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline and Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India pipeline project. Although India walked out of IPI gas pipeline project in favor of Indo-US civilian nuclear agreement but justified her act by voicing concerns on security of the project, price of gas and delivery point in the country. Pakistan is also experiencing continued pressure from US resulting into slowdown of the bilateral gas pipeline project signed by President Zardari and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in May 2009.

It is true that if it wasn’t for the strategic location of Baluchistan and its rich potential for hydrocarbon, copper, gold, uranium and other resources no body would have been fighting for this desolate and forbidding land. This makes it easier to understand why Indian agencies are making hectic efforts to fuel separatist organizations in the province. Out of 70 Baloch tribes only Marri, Bugti and Mengals voice their concerns and talk of independence.  Most of the tribes hail 1973 constitution as workable bases for strengthening the federation. Major law and order problem is being experienced in only three (Dera Bugti, Kohlu and Khuzdar districts) out of twenty seven districts of the province. Baluchistan Liberation Army (BLA) and Baluchistan Liberation Force (BLF) though have the ability to conduct terrorist attacks but their wide spread acceptance and support for their cause may not be all that forthcoming. Nevertheless, continuation of this situation will do the trick for the enemies of Pakistan as it will prevent development of Baluchistan as a major energy corridor.

Baluchistan besides being a repository of a large verity of natural resources including hydrocarbon has the potential to develop into a north-south transit corridor consisting of gas pipelines, roads, port, rail and air infrastructural network. Inauguration of deep sea water port at Gwadar in March 2007 has opened up the possibilities of Baluchistan becoming a favored commercial and energy intermediary for the Central Asian Republics. It has also created strategic snags for India by complicating her naval strategic planning as it provides greater depth to Pakistan Navy. The port when made fully operational can substantially strengthens Pakistan’s influence with Afghanistan and the Central Asia states. Increase Chinese influence and her strategic partnership with Pakistan. These developments certainly are in conflict with India regional ambitions. Her involvement and support for separatist elements in Baluchistan are part of her efforts to slowdown this process.

Pakistan needs to handle the situation tact fully to ensure her long term fuel security. So far, the government has done a good job by tabling Baluchistan package and successful conclusion of 7th NFC Award. It certainly addresses their major grievances.  Government needs to go a step further and should make efforts to address immediate public needs  by taking up projects that will ensure provision of jobs, provide food security, health services, education for their children and above all voice to resolve their own issues. The recent developments have helped to cool down political temperature in the province but the success of the whole effort depends on how quickly government can reach out to the people and how effectively their needs are met. Political dialogue will be of paramount importance. Government must engage in political process with all stakeholders however unreasonable they may be.

It will go a long way in checking the foreign hand busy in Baluchistan in the dirty business of arms supply, espionage, sabotage, and assassinations. It is for sure that if Pakistan’s energy crisis is not checked effectively it will plunge the country in total disarray shortening tempers and reducing ethnic tolerance. The turmoil in Afghanistan and interest of Global powers in the area has made the problem increasingly complex. Possible drone attacks by US Forces in Baluchistan will disturb the fragile balance and make the job of the Government of Pakistan increasingly difficult. As most of these situations are not of Pakistan’s making and nor it can do much about it, the only way forward is to put our own home in order. If we become strong from within no foreign power will be able to hurt us.