Nuclear compromises — connecting the dots
By Dr Shireen M Mazari • Jun 10th, 2009 • Category: Politics • 9 CommentsIt has now become routine for the US to focus on Pakistan’s nuclear weapons whenever there is trouble within the country. Clearly, the US has not recovered from its trauma of seeing a developing Muslim state acquire nuclear capability. Moreover, as one of the greatest proliferators since 1945 to Israel, the US has always maintained hypocrisy over its non-proliferation stance and this has now been fully exposed with its 123 nuclear agreement with India.
Nevertheless, the US has continued to be relentless in targeting Pakistan’s nuclear assets in one way or another. What has been of growing concern to some of us has been the seeming weakening of the Pakistani resolve on sustaining the credibility of our nuclear deterrence through constant improvement and increase in the nuclear arsenal – especially post-9/11. If individual incidents are collated together, the dismal picture unfolds more clearly.
First there was the bizarre and totally unnecessary victimisation of Dr A Q Khan. While the Musharraf regime thought that would end the focus on our nuclear programme, many of us at the time stated the apparent – that capitulation on this count would only send the wrong signals to the US and our other nuclear detractors as they would take this as a sign of our weakness. And that is exactly what has been happening since.
The incarceration of Dr Khan was followed by our voluntary sending of old centrifuges to the IAEA – despite the fact that each nuclear power’s centrifuges reveal the unique design of that country’s nuclear weapon. Some of us had critiqued this decision at the time but we were told that these were old centrifuges and our designs had moved on. That was true but having the original blueprint could allow one to configure the path of these improvements. However, the real issue was why we had made this move when we were not required to under any of our international obligations. Incidentally, on the whole Dr Khan issue also, it needs to be constantly reiterated that he had not broken any of Pakistan’s international treaty obligations as we are still not members of the Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group (NSG).
From the centrifuges issue we watched silently as the US moved towards its strategic nuclear deal with India. Despite the deal contravening US NPT and NSG commitments, we did not move diplomatically to counter this impending deal on a ridiculous assumption that the US may offer us a similar deal – despite the US having constantly reiterated that this was not going to be the case, even though American logic on this was heavily flawed given how India had nuclear agreements with Saddam’s Iraq and with Iran and Indian scientists had been found at the Bushehr plant (India’s detailed proliferation record has been published earlier in these columns).
Belatedly our able diplomats sought to counter US efforts for a country-specific exception for India in terms of safeguards in the IAEA and export waivers in the NSG. We tried to argue that instead there should be a criteria-based approach and, ironically, in the NSG, Israel also pushed forward a non-paper arguing the same point. When India sought its special safeguards agreement with the IAEA – which is unique in its exit loopholes for India – Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry (MFA) finally began an aggressive diplomatic campaign which was getting positive results. Pakistan had already sent a letter to the IAEA Boards of Governors (BoG), asking for a vote in the BOG on this issue – something the US and India wanted to avoid at all costs. There were two valid reasons behind Pakistan’s move: One, to expose those member states that had been holding forth on non-proliferation but would go along with making an exception for India; and, two, to see how many of Pakistan’s Arab allies, who were members of the IAEA Board would vote. In addition to a letter from Pakistan’s ambassador to Austria and the IAEA, as part of the MFA’s strategy on this issue, the foreign secretary also wanted to send a letter to the NSG states asking them to adopt a criteria-based approach for sensitive technology transfers rather than country based exceptions. The third leg of the MFA strategy was to send an envoy – preferably a seasoned diplomat – to our ally China to get them to lend support to the Pakistani approach vis a vis the IAEA and the NSG.
Unfortunately, as soon as the Pakistani letter was sent to the IAEA BoG, the US got moving and contacted their Pakistani point man (story had come in The News last year) and a cable was duly sent to the MFA strongly recommending that the MFA stop all activities meant to counter India-US moves on safeguards and technology exports at the IAEA and the NSG respectively. So, all diplomatic efforts by Pakistan came to a grinding halt and the special envoy’s mission had to be aborted midway.
The compromised did not end here. President Zardari unilaterally declared a no-first-use policy despite the fact that we had deliberately, like NATO kept our position on this ambivalent while India had effectively abandoned this position in its nuclear doctrine. Then we saw research and development funds being cut in the nuclear sector and President Zardari declare that we would not be producing any more nuclear weapons. Taken together this meant that our nuclear arsenal would not be kept updated and would eventually comprise of outdated weapons – thereby destroying the viability of the strategic deterrence.
Meanwhile, the centre of gravity of the war from Afghanistan was successfully transferred to Pakistan and this was accompanied by the US cacophony of how our nukes could fall into wrong hands and so on. Issues were raised about our command and control despite the fact that so far only the US has displayed a total collapse of command and control of its nukes (the B52 incident). There were rumours of the US having gained some access to our nuclear sites and security codes, especially when Obama declared that “I’m confident that we can make sure that Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is secure….” There has also been the disturbing news that Pakistan may have agreed to send its enriched uranium to the US and now we have seen India restart a campaign against our nukes, seeking US help to cap our arsenal.
Meanwhile our Strategic Plans Division continues to function under a strange logic that by giving more access to foreigners – including journalists (even Indian), analysts and one assumes foreign officials also – somehow the deep-seated anti-Muslim prejudices that underlie the anti-Pakistan-nuke stance will be mitigated. Unfortunately, the reality has proven otherwise with those granted such access writing highly negative reports on our nuclear assets. Not that that has stopped the highly public posturing of what should be a low-profile largely covert set-up. Only recently an SPD official declared that 10,000 security personnel guard our nuclear arsenal. What was the need to reveal this information? Has India or the US or even France ever made such disclosures?
Meanwhile the latest “revelation” about our nuclear programme has come from the Congressional Research Service and it has much in it to cause concern for us. The information itself could not have been acquired without some inside assistance. It bemoans our continuing development in the nuclear field although we are under no international legal obligation not to do so. It also highlights US efforts to target us on the nuclear issue by referring to the continuing focus on Dr Khan through conditionalities put into two pieces of aid legislation.
Most disturbing is the information given that our “nuclear weapons are stored unassembled, with the fissile core separated from the non-nuclear explosives. These components are stored separately from delivery vehicles.” If true, this means that Pakistan has given in to US pressure that was being used even before 1998 of making us adopt “non-weaponised deterrence” – where the nuts and bolts are kept separate so that in a crisis you cannot actually have a viable nuclear device immediately – while the enemy would. We assumed our leaders had withstood the pressure. Clearly that does not seem to be the case. Perhaps the highly visible SPD should be clarifying this point rather than telling us how many security personnel guard our nukes! While our political leadership talks of outmoded and absurd military concepts of “total war” and “total victory” and keeps the military embroiled in situations where it has abdicated political responsibility, has it also moved us further down the slippery slope of total nuclear compromise?
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The writer is a defence analyst.
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“”"First there was the bizarre and totally unnecessary victimisation of Dr A Q Khan.”"”
Unnecessary victimization? Thanks, you just showed us your level of ignorance.
“”"American logic on this was heavily flawed given how India had nuclear agreements with Saddam’s Iraq and with Iran and Indian scientists had been found at the Bushehr plant (India’s detailed proliferation record has been published earlier in these columns).”"”
Classic Pakistani logic, otherwise show us the proof? or give us some links.
Whole purpose of this article is to create FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) among Pakistani citizens.
Branwash us more!
If Taliban took over Pakistan and its nukes. The USA would not dare attack Pakistan. Just like do they do not dare to Attack Iran which has inferior military hardware.
If Pakistani Missiles and nukes were placed in key Muslim countries. America’s key allies would all be within range.
They would have too much pressure to attack Pakistan or take its nukes.
Fact is Musharaf was an extreme secularist, who saw Pakistan heading towards Islam. His loyalities were not with Pakistan. He saw 911 incident and USA pressure to rid Pakistan of Islam and promote secularism.
But As Allah says they plan and Allah plans and Allah is the best of planners.
As a result Afghanistan and frontier are become similar and more Islamic.
In years to come Invasion of India will start from Afghanistan -frontier region and the leaders of the India and parts of pakistan will be once again be put in chains and dragged.
Arabs may wake up and NATO will then have to come to aid of isreal. Thus Nato and Arab war and when the Taliban have finished with India. They will come to the relief of the Arabs in theirr war with the NATO.
So things may be shaping up for the fulfilment of a hadith. Maybe in our own lifetime.
Americans are obsessed with humiliation.
How better to humiliate Pakistan, than humiliate its hero and its women (like Afia)? Whilst Pak shakes its chicken legs.
Dear Dr.mazari,
Your whole concept concentrates on one issue ENEMITY TO INDIA. PARITY WITH INDIA.
You conviniently forget what Mao said” we will eat grass but will have our nukes”. Your country wants to eat dollars but want to have INDEPENDENT NUKES.
We in India are now proud we are the second most growing economy after China which is atleast 4 times bigger than ours.Inspite of global slowdown China is growing at 9% while we are nearly 6.5%. We also know USA requires INDIAN bailout along with chinese bailout.We are trying to catchup on 8%. But your nation is asking for 15 billion dollars because you are killing your own citizens and creating IDPs.The only reason is PARITY WITH INDIA AT ALL COST. The comity of world nations have seen through your game and they knew that part of your assets is located in SAUDI ARABIA.The game of Holy land should not have infidels by Osama is actually a ploy to hide the nukes in desert is known.
Let your nation concentrate on your assets and growth of your economy and shed your Myopia about India.Tell your audience openly “”your enemy is USA but we want their dollars because our ruling elite cannot eat grass.”"”
Dear Johann,
As the rat may not resist cheese, come what may Mr Johann may not escape his sarcasm. You need not to tell that India is in the bliss of economic growth which is circumstantial because Pakistan is fighting the menace of terrorism as well as bearing the brunt of onslaught of US hegemonic designs for the time being on our western border. Pakistan is fighting this war for its survival as well as a defence line for India also.
If tomorrow the scenario changes and Pakistan is forced to open the flood gates that it is holding at the moment; then only downstream, the geography of area dictates (which is supported by the history also) that these floods may not stop till it reach the far ends of meek Indian soils.
There are more than hundreds of active separatist dissident groups of India ready to abet and whole heartedly receive the invading forces and see India split ascender.
You know it well that Pakistan will always wish to see India remain intact but the cracks are already showing.
Dr. Mazari has given a good insight of the situation confronted by Pakistan with regard to the Atomic arsenal and I can certainly gauge the the rumbles that are making the Indian stomach upset that Pakistan is doing very well in controlling its critical affairs and will soon be seen stable.
Sorry: Ill witted plan of Tom against Jerry always goes awry.
Hi Khokar,
I am an Indian but still i feel your nation because of its size requires Nuke secuerty from bigger neighbour India. But your nation doesnot understand this simple psychology. It doesnot want Indian nukes which India requires to protect from bigger neighbour China which has attacked us and inflicted defeat. You require a deal like Indo/US deal. Have it. we have no problem.
Who is responsible for your western border problem? It is not India.You created this socalled monster Taliban to please America but donot blame India for this problem.But donot hink selectively about them.LET and JUD are also monsters.
Doesnot North Korea surrounded by nukes of USA aided Japan, South korea and Nuclear armed China(which invaded vietnam and India) require security with its own nukes?
Dear Johann,
You are Indian and you think that owing to size of our country and I must add owing to its vulnerability Pakistan requires a potent deterrent to ward off its arch enemies and keep them at bay. I think you must be the first Indian coming up with such; uchaay wichaar ; (I mean a good will for Pakistan). Thanx for that.
Any how Pakistan may be requiring as equal deal like US-India nuclear deal to facilitate its nuclear technology programs but when you have got such a good neighbour like India—-stretching all along from north to south who needs more enemies—when we have good neighbor to make sure that Pakistan stays at possible the lowest of its profile.
India has just entered into deal with US. Well with US; who knows better than Pakistan that every thing looks so rosy in the start; India better ask her this neighbour what all it takes in that mating/match as a— labor of love. It looks good; it feel goods in the start but in the friendship with Us— start is always with pomp and frills but it ends up like Saddam’s fate—- loosing its country and himself going down the gallows. Why after all Pakistan and for that matter India (but some time later) they be an exception?
Pakistan is the one who arranged an access for US to china and also made it possible that– you me and all other now know US the only super power on this planet but see the rewards that akistan has got; there is anarchy chaos in every nook and corner and Pakistan is found utterly destabilized. Its economy is depleted and is gasping— for its survival. This is all what all Pakistan could reap while in love with America.
Any how Pakistan is totally not surprised that why India behaves like the way she behaves? To see Pakistan going down is India’s prime aim and it also her end game. India has to do that.
But rest assure; Pakistanis they are notch above the rest– they know– how to come out winning.
Pakistan is fighting Islam. What was teh point of slpiting and creating a new state if Pakistan wnated to fight Islam.
Hi Khokar,
Please read the post by Prof mazari and your comments again.Who is obssessed with India? Openly advocate your independece from notonly USA but also Saudies who have a vested interest in having the leadership of Muslim world in the guise (custodian of two holy Mosques).See the photographs of Quaid e-Azam,Generals Ayub Khan,Zia-ul-haq,Musharaff,civilian leaders like Bhutto,nawaz,Benazir,Zardari etc etc Has any one has got a beard? See the faces of Saudi Kings and see how they treat their subjects, women in the guise of Islam. They ABHOR DEMOCRACY, EDUCATION OF WOMEN while It is different for Pakistani masses who love democracy and their women are brilliant and bright and ofcourse beautiful. Why it is so?
Find the truth in your heart.