Logical Deductions From Lahore Attacks
By Hassan Baig • Mar 4th, 2009 • Category: Politics • 11 CommentsThis is not an opinion piece. These are just the facts and logical deductions - any conclusions will be your own. And please note that I do not claim to have been perfectly thorough in my cogitation - the situation is still evolving and no analysis can pretend to be complete at this juncture.
Style of attack:
- The attackers were faced with thin resistance since the security detail had been compromised. And this resistance became thinner as the battle went on - five security officials were gunned down in quick succession.
- The attackers had heavy weaponry, generous amounts of ammunition and food supplies strapped in their backpacks. No reports suggest they used up their entire arsenal.
- None of them took hits or were neutralized. All twelve fought till the time they fled.
Essentially, the attackers fled without killing the Sri Lankan team or taking them hostage even though they had lots of weaponry and poor opposition. They did not even pursue the fleeing cricket bus. Likewise, they did not fight to the bitter end, preferring worldly life over the trappings of heaven most terrorists these days are assumed to be motivated by.
So essentially they indulged in a gun battle for a set amount of time and then dispersed.
Therefore it’s logical to think that killing or abducting cricketers was never their intent. It was only and only to make a statement. A statement meant to display Pakistan’s almost pathetic powerlessness in providing security even for her most revered guests. A statement meant to not actually hurt, but to denigrate internationally.
What benefits or disadvantages would such a statement garner for any of the current players in Pakistan’s geopolitical scene? I will analyze this on a case-to-case basis below:
Taliban:
The Taliban traditionally look for concrete achievements from any operation they partake. These achievements are almost always exclusively the following:
- Pressurizing for Shariah-law imposition
- Demanding a prisoner swap
- Attainment of heaven through fighting till death
- Annexing land as safe haven (e.g. Swat/FATA)
Taliban achieved none of the aforementioned objectives from this operation. No tangible benefits are seen here.
On the negative side, they are already soft targets and thus did manage to garner some more negative publicity and the inevitable military pressure that will result from it. This makes matters worse for them since they came to the bargaining table from a position of weakness and are not (currently) looking for a major escalation with Pakistan’s military.
Opposition parties and movements:
One advantage to opposition parties and movements is the perception that the Zardari government is proved more and more incompetent with every passing second. This attack just adds fuel to that fire.
One big setback of this attack for opposition parties and movements is the pressure which is now undeniably building up on them to unite with the government and to put their differences on the back-burner.
Zardari:
The opposition’s loss is Zardari’s gain: he can chide the opposition for being divisive and his government can legitimately call for over-arching unity under the Zardari banner.
The opposition’s gain is Zardari’s loss: the security lapse makes his government look all the more farcical.
LeT:
LeT, if indeed they did it, sent out a very strong message. A message that we will get you no matter what you do, so better come to the negotiating table instead of finding a military solution. Reasonable benefit here.
On the negative side, the LeT is a soft target like the Taliban so would have to brace for a substantial amount of more scrutiny in the aftermath of the attacks.
LTTE:
If the LTTE did it, it garnered two important benefits. Firstly, it delivered a sizeable blow at denting Pakistan’s strategic partnership with Sri Lanka. Secondly, the organization also sent a strong message to all Sri Lankans that no matter where you go, you’ll never be safe from us.
I see no disadvantages for LTTE in this scenario.
India:
India has achieved the following benefits from the attack: Firstly, the attacks have blackened Pakistan’s diplomatic face in the international community. Secondly, the attacks have endeavored to dent Pakistan’s strategic partnership with Sri Lanka. Thirdly, Pakistan cricket has died giving a big psychological blow to the nation and a loss of hundreds of millions in revenue. Fourthly, Bombay attacks, perceived to be of Pakistani origin, have been avenged. Fifthly, the attacks edge the international opinion ever closer to declaring Pakistan a terrorist/failed state; giving NATO a stronger case to not respect international borders in carrying out military actions and making Pakistan’s nuclear assets look extremely vulnerable (and hence ’securable’).
On the negative side, India may momentarily see incidence of cross-border terrorism if Pakistan fails completely. In the long term though, such terrorism can be ameliorated - for India’s border with Pakistan is not certifiably as treacherous a terrain as FATA. Moreover, the country decidedly has a lot of resources to beef-up her border security.
Trackback URL
|
|
|
Click For More Articles By Hassan Baig
All posts by Hassan Baig
You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
An important CURRENT PLAYER MISSED in the above discussions.
>>>>> AN INSIDE JOB BY ISI AND PAK ARMY
BENEFITS:–
1>>>>>> SPEEDS UP the sanction of 5 BILLION DOLLARS as an one time payment as promised by Kerry.
2>>>>>> Diverting attention from the MUMBAI ATTACK PROBE.
a>Increasingly Pak Army men are found to be involved in the 26/11 attack. Diverting attention is always on the cards.
b> Spectacular escape by the 12 or 14 TERRORIST is very strange in BROAD DAY LIGHT!
C> Terrorists KNEW MINUTE DETAILS of the bus route and other arrangement.
All this points to an Inside job.
3>>>>>>Weaking the position of Zardari govt. even more ……..to GRAB POWER in near future.
DISADVANTAGES: -
None whatsoever. Many questions have been raised by ordinary Pakis about the ability of Pak army.
But PAK ARMY is still the king in Pakistan.
‘Weaking’ should be “weakening”
I agree, 100% its RAW who is responsible for this carnage
Shame on RAW, WE WILL NOT FORGET THIS.
Stop blaming all your troubles on RAW.
You should not blame India for the inefficiencies of our government!
The evil Taliban and their local sympathizers like the Lashkar-e-Taiba are the enemies of India, enemies of Pakistan alike! These evil forces threaten democracy in our country and want to take our country back to the stone ages. These filthy taliban terrorists don’t even refrain from bombing our own mosques.
The truth is that our PPP government is still not taking the threat of Talibanisation seriously. It is a failure on part of our government to sign a truce with these terrorists in Swat, that has given them opportunity to re-arm and target our cities.
In the past 8 months of PML’s Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif’s democratically elected government in Punjab, there was never such an incident of terrorism occuring in any major city of Punjab. This explains the good governance of our former democratically elected Chief Minister, a brother of Mian Nawaz Sharif, who initiated a genuine and sincere peace process with India, which was later sabotaged by Musharraf, the evil dictator, responsible for Kargil.
Unfortunately, when Mr. Zardari imposed governor’s rule in Punjab, nearly all the police official who were experts in counter terrorism measures and were doing really good work for last 8th months were changed/transferred by the Zardari appointed Governor Salman Taseer. The Governor started using Punjab Police for supressing political oppositon in the province and consequently, the police was more focussed on political front, instead of performing their duties. This is the most correct explanation of this unfortunate incident.
Instead of offending each other, and spreading hatred for one another, we Indians and Pakistanis should unite against the common threat of terrorism and extremism and defend democracy in our countries. Extremist, regardless of whether they are Hindus or Muslims are enemies of us all!
good assessment
as usual Adnan is right.
While I find comments made by Adnan to be very sensible, I am also impressed with good assessment made by Hassan Baig. I tend to believe that no body in Pakistan including LeT and Taliban stand to gain anything out of this episode, but I fail to understand how these 14 guys went absolutely without any resistance from security agencies other than few escorts who laid down their life for honour of their country. We feel extremely frustrated whenever incidence like Mumbai come to fore showing security lapses, so I can understand plight of ordinary Pakistani who must be feeling in same way.
My parents hail from Pakistan and I have grown up hearing about “Uche burz Lahore de” and all good things about Pakistan, but I feel sad when I see such a strong anti Indian sentiment in Pakistan with people like Dr Razahaider and Khokar. We in India love our motherland more than our life but our sense of patriotism is not about being anti Pakistan. That is why I fail to believe that India will ever support any such henious crime any where in the world just to score some points over Pakistan, especially when we are probably biggest victim of terrorism.
@Adnan: there’s no ‘evil’ in the world simple child, there’s just the haves and have-nots and power struggles which commence as a result. people are not motivated by evil, they are motivated by SELF INTEREST. all players mr. baig’s listed are trying to position themselves to a position of maximum power to serve exactly this self interest. that’s essentially how the world works. so to understand the ‘whodonit’ question, try considering who gained the most out of such an attack. chances are you’d be pointing your finger at the culprit. if you ever understand this you’ll stop sounding like a 16 year old that you sound like right now
@Hassan: as usual, a highly thought provoking essay. ive read everything youve written here and on teeth - you’re very sensible, educated and come across as a man with a VISION. have you thought about enterting politics? I for one will campaign for you!!!
p.s. great poise for holding back on passing on opinions and giving a changing situation it’s well deserved benefit of the doubt. very balanced sir
Шрифт трудновато читается у вас на блоге
Отличный пост. Дамаю для ваших подписчиков была бы еще полезна статья на тему “услуги номинального учредителя“