The Pakistani Spectator

Consequent to August 20 Afghan elections made controversial by the powers to be, Afghans will be asked to re-cast their votes in a $200m runoff being arranged on 7 November. Though the Afghan Independent Election Commission had declared Mr. Karzai the winner in the last elections having bagged 54 percent of the votes cast yet, the international community showed its reservations on the result amid fraud charges. The Electoral Complaints Commission also came out with its findings later wherein it concluded that 210 sample polling stations were rigged, some with over 91 percent fraud. Accordingly, Mr. Karzai was forced to forego IEC anointment of his presidency and ultimately succumbed to the US pressure for accepting a runoff. He had earlier accused the US and the West for meddling in the election results and intimated that he would not prefer to be a candidate if a runoff was to be conducted.

America says that it is looking for a credible partner (whatever it means) in Afghanistan to continue its campaign against Al-Qaeda and that no additional troops would be committed for Afghanistan until election process is over. The much awaited Afghan strategy will finally be tailored once it becomes clear to the Americans that who would be the President of Afghanistan and what type of government it would be working with ultimately. Meanwhile in a prelude to the Runoff elections, the main contender Abdullah Abdullah appears to court the Americans whereas Karzai has more than often questioned their reliability as a partner.

The revised figures depict that a total of 38 percent of voters came out to cast their votes during the last elections. During the runoff, the figure is likely to spiral down due to uncertainties over the second round. The general environment does not reflect keenness of the Afghan masses towards the runoff elections. Nevertheless, the candidates have started their re-election bids. The time is short and they have to canvass their voters which have already been divided into three schools of thoughts. First one is of those who are not interested in another voting exercise as it does not matter who assumes power, the fate would remain the same. Second is of those who are happy and eager for a runoff election and the third one is of those who are angry for their first ballot was not given due respect and as such view the exercise as a conspiracy. Those who are happy for the runoff tout this runoff election as a greater step towards a democratic set-up in Afghanistan, though this is another matter that Afghanistan due to its ethnic diversity is still a million miles away to be actually called a democratic country. They are enthusiastic too as they see this chance to over turn traditional Pashtun dominance of Afghanistan. Then there is the first school of thought that thinks that re-voting really does not matter as Karzai and Abdullah Abdullah are the two sides of the same coin. This group also does not accept the argument that the runoff will be a sign of democratization and the exercise would simply lose an already fragile Afghan self-determination.

Many analysts and the US Secretary of State have predicted in public that the incumbent President Hamid Karzai is going to win this second round of elections too. However, the legitimacy of his win may still be tainted with the fraud in the first round of elections. Meanwhile, the other contender Abdullah Abdullah has withdrawn from the race to the Presidency saying his demand for change in Afghan Election Commission personnel has not been met and that he is not convinced that with the present lot in the Commission, the election runoff will be a fair and transparent exercise. Since the Afghan Constitution does not provide any clause to deal with such a situation wherein there is only one candidate for the election, therefore, the runoff will have to take place with the names of incumbent President and the contender on the ballot paper. Still, there is always a chance that the Supreme Court may intervene and give a ruling declaring Karzai as the President of Afghanistan. Abdullah Abdullah however has asked his supporters not to boycott the process of runoff which indicates that he wants the process to go head as he might be pressured back in the run by the western forces. If he does not, it would point out to a strong possibility that Karzai may have entered into a secret deal with him wherein the former might offer a strong portfolio in his government at an appropriate time. Karzai may have also promised to reshuffle his cabinet dramatically to satisfy national and western criticism on graft and other such like issues once declared the winner. Also, Abdullah Abdullah must have calculated his chances of winning the election especially in the wake of American opinions that put Karzai back in the helm of affairs. It is also true that by any chance had he won the elections, there would have been a surge in ethnic tensions as his cabinet would have been packed with the northerners, the dominance of which would have never be accepted by the Pashtuns of the South and East of Afghanistan.

The second round of the elections in Afghanistan will not be a walk over as far as the security aspects are concerned. Taliban threat still lingers on wherein they have threatened the would be voters with dire consequences if they come out of their homes to cast their votes. Winters have already set in and the recent violent reactions of Afghans over the reports of desecration of Holy Quran by the Western troops have added a new dimension to the security aspect.

Irrespective of the fate of runoff elections, the responsibility of Afghans and international organizations to ensure that this runoff is not touted as a fraud is big one. Given the first round fraud allegations, the legitimacy and fairness will all be too important for the United States and its allies. The election officials have vowed that they will take appropriate steps to ensure that the runoff is not tainted with the accusations of vote rigging and for that it has either sacked or replaced around two hundred of its concerned staff. The election officials are also trying hard to set up polling stations in far off and insurgents infested areas. Moreover, hectic efforts are underway to induct local and international observers to oversee the runoff in order to make the process credible. Meanwhile, one tends to keeps his fingers crossed on the outcome of the ballot that can ensure the more important goal of proper governance in Afghanistan.

By Anwer Ahmad