The Pakistani Spectator

Last week Iran and USA held direct talks on nuclear issue that is engulfing the region already unstable due to some extent. The proximity of Iran with Iraq and Afghanistan, two countries that are already under attack makes this development extremely important. Any development which destabilizes Iran will further destabilize this region in general and Pakistan in particular.

But first let us understand what is Iran’s nuclear programme and what is the truth behind Iran’s designs to acquire nuclear technology.

Iran is an oil producing country but it’s isolation in recent times means it is not up to pace with the rest of the world in terms of technology and progress in many fields. Petroleum technology is no exception. Iran is third largest country in terms of oil reserves in the world and second largest in terms of gas reserves. It is also one of few countries that gives highest subsidy on oil to its people along with India, Mexico, China, Kuwait, Venezuela to name a few. Iran also uses oil to power it’s industries and cities. As an oil producing country Iran depends on revenue from oil for much of it’s budgetary requirements. Although it is one of major oil exporting nations, inflation in Iran is around 29% and it’s budget deficit is increasing each year.

Iran is a member of OPEC and as such it has a limit on oil export. This quota is set out by OPEC on regular basis. However, due to Iran’s isolation it’s oil fields are deprived of evolving technologies and are suffering from deteriorating production levels. There has been no major hydrocarbon discovery in Iran in recent years. Production from it’s major fields is also declining at a faster rate than expected due to no further development in it’s fields and also due to being far behind in contemporary technologies. All these factors together with increasing budget deficits and the subsidy it provides to it’s public means it has much less oil relative to it’s capacity to export in international markets.

Iran has been taking steps to reduce it’s reliance on oil specially for power generation. It is also trying to export as much oil as possible. Iranian parliament passed a resolution a few weeks ago in what is a series of steps to reduce the subsidy it provides to its public on oil. Iran has not been blessed with the hydel power in abundance. Nuclear power provides a means of cheap power production. It is also clean and environmentally friendly. Iran is trying to rely less on fossil fuels for power generation and domestic use and more on nuclear. This will mean more oil for export and less deficit in it’s budget and less unrest on the streets. If it can not plug the hole in it’s budget it is likely that less jobs will be created and it’s spending on public sectors is going to suffer thus causing unrest. And if it can not reduce it’s reliance on oil for power generation it will have to reduce subsidy on oil drastically to curb it’s use. There was wide range unrest on streets earlier this year when Iran started to ration oil in an attempt to meet it export quota.

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is the International Energy Watchdog, which keeps an eye on nuclear installations around the world and works towards non proliferation under UN’s mandate. IAEA does not have a set of rules that it applies to each country across the board. It deals with each country individually and devises contracts to inspect each country’s installations and keeps a watch on efforts of acquiring nuclear technology. Iran too signed a contract unique to it’s conditions for the inspection of it’s facilities with IAEA. Under the terms of the contract Iran will provide access to IAEA for inspection of it’s facilities and in case of a new facility coming online, will declare it to the IAEA 180 days or six months before it become operational.
Last month Iran declared a new facility according to the same contract I mentioned in recent paragraph near Qom. However, due to the dominance of media by certain elements it was perceived by many in the west as something alarming. Even though it was according to its signed contract with IAEA. The motive is simple, to create an atmosphere whereas it will be easy to target it’s nuclear program. According to CIA Iran has ditched it’s efforts to acquire nuclear weapons in 2003.

USA and Iran ran into trouble at the inception of Islamic revolution and it’s diplomatic mission was held hostage for over two years in 1979. Israel safeguards USA’s interests in the region. Israel which itself is a nuclear power does not want Iran to acquire the nuclear weapons. USA and USSR fought a cold war during which time two countries came close to war with each other but only thing which stopped them from attacking each other was nuclear proliferation. Israel tips the balance of power in this region in it’s favor and if it decides to attack any country in the region there is no deterrence that can balance the power, possessed by any country in the region. Israel believes Iran can enrich enough Uranium until 2010 or 2015, sufficient for building nuclear weapons. But in a recent development Iran sounded ready to grant the concessions to USA plus five (UK, France, Germany, Russia, China) to enrich it’s Uranium in a country outside Iran. But this still is work under progress.

In modern world the country that can not sustain economic growth loses its base in public very quick. USSR broke to pieces because it’s economy fell to pieces even though it had more nuclear weapons than USA. Iran’s current regime is openly hostile to the USA and it’s western allies. USA on one previous occasion has helped the opposition to topple the Iran’s government in 1953. However, the current dissidents of Iran have openly said that they are not interested in any outside solution to their country’s internal problem. That is precisely the reason that last month the talk in USA that Iran’s nuclear facilities should be destroyed by surgical strike was discarded. Iran’s dissidents said that they will openly side with the regime if it was attacked, plus it will only delay its nuclear program by a few years at maximum but will not eliminate the program. USA want a government in Iran, which is friendly towards Israel and which is in interest of  USA. It will resolve to any measure to topple the current regime. But any resort to dirty tactics is likely to further destabilize this region.

Iran’s nuclear program can be badly hurt by sanctions. It will serve twofold. It will delay delivery of parts to it’s program, but the main advantage of sanctions against Iran’s nuclear program to USA will be the unrest caused in it’s public who already clashed with the regime on the issue of election earlier this year. Sanctions will hit Iran hard as it will be forces to export limited amount of oil. It means less money for its budget and less money for its people ultimately. The unrest in it’s public will be enough to topple the current regime or at least create immense pressure on it to yield to demands of the USA and it’s allies. In coming days it is evident that media will break the hell lose on this issue. CIA has a terrible mark of cain on it’s forehead due to it’s twisting and lying in the WOMD case in Iraq. It look’s like there will be another repeat of the stories we heard about Iraq’s nuclear program and weapons of mass destruction and the UN will be bullied into passing a resolution to attack Iran. Let’s hope a peaceful resolution to the solution is reached and the region is saved from being  destabilized further. Every country has the right to acquire nuclear technology for peaceful purposes and so Iran should be able to pursue peaceful nuclear technology without fear of being punished what is right for it’s country.