The Pakistani Spectator

The burning question that concerns all of humanity today regards our priorities today. Should nations be investing billions of dollars every year in beefing up their defenses and purchasing or building weopans of mass destruction or should they be allocating this money towards food security, water conservation, environmental protection, education, health and sanitation, etc.

We are fast reaching a point in time where water shortages and consequent food shortages will affect billions of people across the world. Our glaciers are melting away, our energy resources are depleting at a rapid rate, forests are fast being stripped away. Global warming, pollution of our environment and deforestation are just some of the many factors that are fast driving humanity to a point that will have tremendous impact upon the survival of humankind.

Not only man but the survival of numerous plant and animal species is at stake. Imagine large arable tracts of land turning into deserts. Global warming is not only causing increases in temperatures but its causing the weather to become drier as well. The time is not far off. By the year 2025, more than 2.8 billion people living in forty eight nations will be facing water stress or water scarcity. Of these 48 nations, forty are in Near East, North Africa or in sub Saharan Africa.  It is thought that by the year 2050, the number of nations facing water stress or scarcity would have increased to fifty four and the population in these nations would be about 4 billion. That constitutes 40 percent of a projected population of 9.4 billion people.

Already 31 nations of the world are experiencing freshwater shortages. Countries including India, Peru and Nigeria are likely to run short of water by 2025. China is already facing chronic water shortages. African nations that include Morrocco, Algeria, Egypt, Ethopia, Kenya, Somalia, Djibouti, Rwanda, Malawi, Burundi, and South Africa will be facing water shortages and scarcity as well in the year 2025.

A UN report warns that half of humanity would be living with water shortages, depleted fisheries and polluted coast lines within fifty years because of a worldwide water crisis. According to the study carried out by 200 water resource experts working across the world with the United Nations Environment Programme, waste and inadequate management of water are the major factors that are contributing towards rising problems, especially in the poverty-stricken regions of the world.

When glaciers melt away, rivers may run dry. When rivers run dry, it will have an enormous impact upon the water available for irrigation, domestic and industrial purposes. The shortage of water could trigger mass migration of people towards areas or countries where water is in abundance.

Hence agricultural economies such as Pakistan, India and China may face enormous water shortages and consequent food insecurity. Shortage of water and food insecurity could cause unrest in nations and even wars  amongst people and nations over water.

Scientists indicate that the cut in water supply would lead to drop in agricultural yields. Land that was arable once may turn into barren deserts because of increases in temperature and shortages of irrigation water. Millions of people employed in agriculture may be driven out of employment. Populous nations that relied upon agriculture to feed their large populations may have to turn to importing food for their populations. Famines, droughts and multitudes suffering because of that cannot be ruled out. Those driven out of employment may migrate towards areas where they can find sustenance. Disputes arising amongst people in countries and amongst people over water and other resources cannot be ruled out.

The sudden loss of the ability to irrigate huge tracts of land will mean less available food for the local population. It will also certainly mean less available food grain in the international markets.

As countries develop and there is more of urbanization, there will be an increased demand for water. Because of increasing demand of water, the portion allocated for environmental purposes will remain same. Because water resources are scarce and limited, farmers are expected to consume 4 percent more of water in 2025 than what they did in 1995.

As a result food production will be slower due to lack of water and cause shifts in areas where food is grown. Farmers will find it difficult to grow as much of crops as they did in the past and by 2025 irrigated cereal production will be 300 million metric tons less than that could have been cultivated and grown with adequate amount of water. This was the amount of cereal production in USA during the year 2000.

Developing countries may import as much as 245 million tones in 2025.

Some countries may finance these imports from economic growth in sectors other than agriculture, but when high food imports are the result of slow economic development, many countries may find it impossible to maintain the required imports, further worsening food security. Much of Sub-Saharan Africa and the non-oil-producing Middle Eastern and North African countries could be hit particularly hard.

The world is heading towards times when there will be severe water shortages. By the year 2025, there will be more than 2.8 billion people living in 48 nations that face water stress or water scarcity. Of these 48 nations, forty are in Near East, North Africa or in sub Saharan Africa. Over the coming 2 decades, the population and demand per capita will push the Near East into water scarcity. It is thought that by the year 2050, the number of countries facing water stress or scarcity will have increased to 54 and the population in these countries would be 4 billion. That constitutes 40 percent of the projected population of 9.4 billion people.

The Himalayan glaciers are slated to disappear in the next 70 years according to climatologists. If that happens then Asian countries heavily reliant upon this water will face severe water shortages that will seriously affect agricultural yield and output. As the weather becomes drier and hotter, countries such as Pakistan and India may face severe droughts and people migrating towards places where there water is available. It will affect people employed in agriculture as well. You never know that the shortage of water may orchestrate severe securities problems within nations. It can also cause serve as flashpoints between nations.

Theref0re the world, especially poor nations should work out ways of conserving water and fight global warming.