The Pakistani Spectator

We in America appreciate the Pakistanis interest in our election. It is certainly understandable considering the tensions in the region and the military build up in Afghanistan. For most of you as a American I would suspect you support Barack Obama but have deep reservations at the same time. Obama has stated publicly he would not be averse to following Bin Laden into Pakistan which of course would violate your territorial sovereignty. McCain has been less conspicuous about his foreign plans and may be more of a unknown to the Pakistan readers. Since most of the readers of this will be looking for foreign policy insight and not interested in American domestic economic policy I will try my best to give the readers some insights into the two candidate’s foreign policy positions and possible outcomes.

Obama is a foreign policy novice. Through the campaign he has made verbal gaffs about foreign policy. The gaff about following Bin Laden into Pakistan being the most famous. America has had experiences in the past with new presidents with little foreign policy experience and for the most part it has not been good.

John Kennedy was tested by Nikita Khrushchev of the USSR virtually the whole time Kennedy was in office. After meeting Kennedy Khrushchev concluded Kennedy was a push over. Khrushchev placed nuclear missiles in Cuba almost igniting a world nuclear war. Fortunately this crisis was averted and deescalated.

Kennedy very worried now about the intentions of the USSR decided to confront the communist giant indirectly in Vietnam. This was a horrible move for America. The USA forces fought a great war in Vietnam but as most of the readers know lost the war in the halls of Washington and the streets of America. Simply put America did not have the political will to do what was required, march and take over North Vietnam. Militarily there were opportunities in 1968 and 1972. Both times Washington lacked the political will to finish the job. By 1975 the war had been raging 12 years and the American public and politicians had enough. We left in defeat.

This is key to understanding presidential candidate McCain’s experience both in Vietnam and how his foreign policy might unfold. McCain suffered both as a prisoner of war (POW) and the effects of defeat. His foreign policy would be very cautious, much more cautious than the opposition campaigners in America believe. He would pursue an aggressive policy to end the conflict in Afghanistan and Iraq as soon as possible. But make no mistake. If serious conflict presented itself to McCain he would act swiftly and with severity. His memories of Vietnam must still haunt him to this day. It’s a good bet he would make two things a priority. First to resolve the conflict swiftly in victory. Second to get the troops out if possible and at the very least out of the theater of combat operations. McCain will get the job done and get out of town.

Obama is far less experienced and far more likely to make military blunders. Will the Chinese test him in Africa? China has an interest in Sudan and the oil in the region. Will Obama be inclined to send US troops to protect Sudan? What if conflict engulfs his father’s homeland of Kenya? This is not an idle question. Although slim there would be a possible chance of conflict between China and America.

If Israel is attacked will Obama respond? Probably not. What will Israelis response be if they feels isolated? Israel as well as Pakistan is a nuclear power. This is a serious issue that must be faced by whichever candidate enters office.

In the case of McCain his response to Africa would most likely be to offer humanitarian assistance and UN condemnations for aggressive Chinese actions. His prior Vietnam experience would make him extremely cautions to commit combat troops to the area.

McCain response to an Israel war would be similar. He would offer moral and logistical support but would be very reluctant to intervene militarily.

If Obama pulls troops out of Iraq and the region reverts to its past more militant stance against the west American troops could be surrounded by enemies. With American troops in Iraq the flow of men and material to the region can be somewhat monitored and controlled. With out troops in Iraq America would be isolated in Afghanistan. I am sure the Pakistani readers remember the last time this occurred from 1979 to 1989 when the former Soviet Union occupied Afghanistan.

Obama supports this strategy and has said so repeatedly on the campaign trail. His followers strongly support this strategy. If Obama pulls out of Iraq and the war in Afghanistan goes badly you might think he would pull out of Afghanistan. But most likely you would be wrong. The criticism of him in America would be scalding and fierce. He would be seen for the weak president he would be. His self esteem, something that seems to be very important to this man, would be questioned. He most likely would increase troops and escalate the war. A very bad outcome for neighboring Pakistan if the war spills over. Pakistan has already seen minor border violations in the relatively small scale war confined mostly to northern Pakistan. Multiply this by a factor of ten. That is what could very likely happen if Obama’s strategy of pursuing terrorist in Afghanistan, Pakistan and pulling out of Iraq occurs.

McCain would never pursue this strategy. He understands the importance of stability in Iraq and the importance of respecting Pakistanis sovereignty. If boarder violations do occur, and they undoubtedly will, look for payments of billions to the Pakistani government from the McCain administration. McCain would be extremely cautions and do everything in his power to maintain good relations with Pakistan. He will not be afraid to pay billions for those good relations.

McCain understands Pakistan has 172 million people. He understands Pakistan is a nuclear power. And most importantly he understands Pakistan is not someone you want to make an enemy of.

I wish the people of Pakistan peace and prosperity in the coming years. May God be with you.

By

Mark Thompson

Winter springs, Florida