The Pakistani Spectator

The New York Times’ news was stunning and shocking that that Drones’ attack can be extended to the Southwest province of Balochistan.    The major factor accountable for the attacks under consideration by the Obama Administration was the Taliban/Al Qaeda militants factor having permeated the province, particularly the Pushto speaking belt since US attack on Afghanistan and FATA since 2001.  The news is formally and informally of  grave concern to public already faced with the outcomes of  American aggression across borders and tribal areas with its repercussions.    The action in Balochistan will greatly endanger and engulf a belt which comparatively has been peaceful.

Balochistan constitutes 43 percent of the area of  the country.   Constituting an important geo-strategic position by linking Iran (1584 kilometers) and Afghanistan (1181 kilometers) with a 770-km coastline, it is sparsely populated with the total population of  770,11,57 (1998 census) with the density of population as 12 persons per square, it is ethnically divided with Baloch and Pushtoon being the dominant ethnic groups. It has considerable number of  settlers who have migrated from different provinces or from India since 1947.  There is a sizable number Afghan population who entered Balochistan after the 1979 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan as refugees. Majority of them are Pushtoons, but they include Uzbuk and Hazara population.  The refugees factor in Balochistan, accountable for a larger migration, is related to Afghan situation across Durand Line.  The higher is the instability in Afghanistan the more is the influx of refugees.   The migration ratio during the Taliban period (1995-2001) was minimal and with considerable security of western borders, a factor the Pakistan government supported Taliban. The latest phase of migration to Balochistan was witnessed in the post 9/11  US attacks on Afghanistan against  Taliban.

The US invovlement in Afghanistan in the following years mobilized insecurity  to Balochistan as the frontline province.  Kandahar and its surrounding areas which link Balochistan were the core of Taliban force, and the attacks forcing migration included a large number of the activist and supporters who found  in the Pushtoon belt safe sanctuary.  Rapid enhancement of drugs and weapons’ supply across border inside Balochistan was another destabilizing factor.  Nevertheless, despite all  happenings and instability factors Balochistan remained peaceful due to three major factors.   i.  Balochistan did not have foreign Taliban elements.  During the Afghan Jihad war unlike NWFP it had one training camp with inadequate training and operation hit facilities.  ii.  Balochistan is sparsely populated with strong tribal division where outsiders seem conspicuous.  The tribal factors in large discouraged Taliban/Al Qaeda militancy.  iii.    Unlike NWFP where Pakistan army and US forces were active against Al Qaeda/Taliban as happened in North and South Waziristan with its spill over effects into other tribal and settled areas of the province,  there was no action against Taliban in Balochistan.  The military action in Marri and Bugti areas was against Baloch militants and insurgents with a total different agenda, and had no link with Talibanization.   Also, the ratio of indigenous Talibanization was negligible in Balochistan.  Even Punjab experienced more cases of suicide attacks than Balochistan during the last two years.   The mushrooming of Madrasas (religious schools) in Balochistan started before the 9/11 and majority of them were built between 1980-95.  Those built after 1995 are few in number.  The ratio of madrasas has grown in Baloch built, particularly Kalat division.   Madrasas in large are neither linked with militancy nor have evidence of involvement.  Although they can be linked and made liable to attack for garnering militancy and terrorism.

The extension of Drones attack can be without evidence.   It is the legacy of Great Game America started in Afghanistan  with Pakistan as the frontline state.  Pakistan was indulged into proxy war and used against Soviet Union until May 1988 the last Soviet solider left Aghan soil.   The US abandoned Afghanistan at the time when it needed aid and involvement for economic and political development.  The warlords factor, civil war, and emergence of Taliban were the ultimate result of the policy US adopted.  Taliban brought peace and restored law and order situation without any threat to regional peace and security.   The reversal of  Afghan policy by Pakistan and post Taliban events made FATA more vulnerable with growing strength of Taliban.   Taliban are many times more stronger today than were in 2001 at the sovereignty and security for Pakistan as nation-state.   How peaceful was FATA and NWFP in pre 9/11?  One can ask the simple question has Taliban militancy grown or lessened.  It has greatly grown — due to US policies and Pakistan government support for that.

The extension of Drones attack in Balochistan will blow the status quo which is accountable for peace and security in the region.  The immediate target will be the Pushtoon belt which is at present the most peaceful and agriculturally prosperous.  Unlike the Baloch belt, Pushtoon belt of Balochistan has never posed any insurgency threat to federation.   Tribally homogenous and commercially immersed it has proved shock absorber against Taliban militancy, no matter they exist on its soil.   With the exception of  occasional attacks in the border adjacent areas of Chaman, there has any recorded event Taliban have been blamed for.   One can travel and live freely in the area.  Strategically  and politically it will be suicidal for Pakistan if it is engulfed into war as did the FATA and its surrounding.