The Pakistani Spectator

The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) appears to have resolved the issue of succession, for the time-being at least, after belatedly conceding Baitullah Mehsud’s death and distributing the two most important positions in the organisation among the main contenders, Hakimullah Mehsud and Maulana Waliur Rahman Mehsud.

Under the power-sharing formula, the younger man Hakimullah was chosen the TTP central Ameer, or head, and Waliur Rahman was made the leader of the militants in their stronghold of South Waziristan.

Hakimullah, who studied in a Madrassa for some years but didn’t graduate as a Mullah, would be heavily dependent on Waliur Rahman for both manpower and resources to run the TTP. Waliur Rahman, a cousin of Baitullah and his close aide, would apparently continue to control the organisation’s affairs as he did in the last years of the ailing Baitullah’s life. Moreover, he would wield considerable influence as the TTP Ameer for South Waziristan, the birthplace and headquarters of the militant group.

For 20 days, the Pakistani Taliban commanders tried to hide and deny Baitullah’s death. They conceded his death when it became impossible to keep denying it any further. The evidence was piling up and the Taliban were unable to provide any proof of Baitullah’s life.

It appears that Baitullah was killed along with his wife on the night of August 5 when US drones fired missiles at his father-in-law Maulana Ikramuddin’s house in Zangara village near Ladha town in South Waziristan. The story that Hakimullah fed to the media on Tuesday about Baitullah getting critically injured in the drone attack and succumbing to his injuries just two days ago may not be true. Until now he and other TTP commanders were claiming that Baitullah was ill rather than injured. As an afterthought, Hakimullah and his men are now presenting to the media a new story and sequence of events. And this narration is based on the fact that Baitullah fell unconscious after suffering injuries in the US drone-and-missile strike on August 5 and breathed his last on August 22 or 23. It would be hard to believe this story following the less-than-credible denials and explanations that the TTP commanders made during the last few weeks.

There was no way that the new TTP leader would come from any place outside South Waziristan. It had to be a South Waziristani and also someone from the Mehsud tribe. Baitullah’s fellow Mehsuds in the TTP would not have agreed to pass on the leadership to anyone else. Neither Maulana Faqir Muhammad, the TTP deputy leader and the Taliban commander for Bajaur Agency, nor Maulana Fazlullah from Swat, Tariq Afridi from Darra Adamkhel and Abdul Wali alias Omar Khalid from Mohmand Agency had any fighting chance to head the organisation after Baitullah’s death. The swiftness with which Maulana Faqir Muhammad withdrew his claim to Baitullah’s position as the TTP head revealed his own weak position and underscored the inevitability of having someone from South Waziristan to replace Baitullah.

In the absence of a strong leader like Baitullah, the TTP would no longer be the same active organisation that it was during his life. Differences in its ranks could emerge, more so if the Taliban continue to suffer setbacks at the hands of Pakistan’s armed forces and the US drones. Though both Hakimullah, an emotional young man aged less than 30, and the far more mature Waliur Rahman together phoned the BBC Urdu service in Islamabad on Tuesday to formally announce Baitullah’s death and at the same time show that they have no differences, the issue of unity or disunity in the TTP ranks would continue to be discussed. Their show of solidarity in the time of grief for the TTP rank and file due to Baitullah’s death was most likely designed to keep the morale of the Taliban fighters high. It was also aimed at assuring the Taliban troops that their two most important commanders are united and not fighting each other as claimed by the government.

By Rahimullah Yusufzai at News