The Pakistani Spectator

Questions are being raised even after more than a month what prompted Pakistan to go after Afghan Taliban leadership despite the fact both parties used to have certain level of understanding which always has been despised by the USA and its western allies ever since war on terror started in October 2001. Brief description of recent history is required to comprehend the raison detre of changed policy of Pakistan.

Unlike its predecessor, Obama administration has been following realistic foreign policy vis-à-vis Pakistan and has been achieving its targets in its counterinsurgency mission in Afghanistan and border regions of Pakistan with relatively more success. In Bush era, the ex-president of Pakistan, Gen. Pervaiz Musharraf, had been under tremendous pressure from domestic political circumstances that was why he had had only one option to perpetuate his illegitimate rule viz unconditional surrender to unimaginative foreign policy dictates of ex-president George Bush. This Bush-Mush nexus did not yield desired results in war on terror. After departure of Musharraf, fresh team of managers took over Washington who tried to use diplomacy as tool of soft power and appointed seasoned diplomat Richard Holbrooke as special representative for AfPak region. After February 2008’ general elections, Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) took over charge and made efforts to undo the damage done by Musharraf’s rule especially in realm of foreign policy. Traditionally foreign policy is crafted by the powerful Army in Pakistan which under its head, Gen. Ashfaq Pervaiz Kiyani, tried to improve tarnished image of his institution. Civil Government under President Asif Ali Zardari and prime minister Yusuf Raza Gilani did not interfere in important policy decisions taken by Army.

Relationship between Pakistan’s security establishment and the Taliban of Afghanistan has been topsy-turvy since 1994. After September 11, 2001’, Pakistan did not have any other option but to abandon Taliban in the wake of American awesome pressure as they refused to surrender to USA demands. However Pakistan did not sever its ties with its leadership. When the subsidiary wing of Taliban, based in tribal region of Pakistan, named as Tehreek-e-Taliban, Pakistan (TTP) started anti-state terrorism and unleashed a deadly series of suicide attacks in Pakistan, Pak army started massive crackdown against the Islamist militants in South Waziristan, Swat, Bajaour and Mohmind. The Taliban who are ignorant of foreign policy constraints in a uni polar world, got offended after Pakistan sided with the USA and NATO in wake of 9/11. Military operation in Swat and tribal areas against sympathizers of Afghan Taliban further exacerbated the already strained relationship between Pakistan army and Taliban.

Despite uneasy relationship with Taliban, Pakistan did not end indirect links with Mullah Omar and his cronies, commonly known as Quetta Shura, who continued to live in Pakistan. The reason for adhering to this policy was not difficult to understand that due to stiff resistance by Taliban, (overwhelming majority of them are ethnic Pakhtuns, largest ethnic group in Afghanistan, 42 %), USA and its allies would withdraw sooner or later as the war is getting increasingly unpopular in American and European capitals. It was becoming difficult to cope with the increasing criticism by the American and European populace who has been infuriated by colossal loss of life in Afghanistan while combating with Taliban. For future political needs, Pakistan kept limited liaison with Taliban commanders.

President Obama, in his December 1st speech at West Point Military Academy, outlined the exit strategy along with announcement of troops surge as year 2009 proved to be the bloodiest year for allied troops since UN sanctioned military offensive started in 2001. The London Conference, held in the end of January this year, envisaged reintegration process supervised by the USA but Afghan president Hamid Karzai went a step ahead by offering ‘reconciliation’ to ‘all’ parties of Afghan conflict. There was a clear difference between thinking of Afghan leader and American policy makers. Karzai talked of ‘re-conciliation’ that clearly included negotiation with the Taliban and its spiritual leader Mullah Mohammad Omar while the Americans have reservations as they aim at ‘re-integration’ of low and middle level Taliban who surrender their arms and join Afghan Government’s effort. American policy also offered to use money, jobs and development for those who opt for making peace with Afghan and Allied troops.

USA has been asking Pakistan to go all out against Taliban since beginning of military offensive but Pakistan trod carefully as it did not break fully with them because of future compulsions. Pakistan’s viewpoint was vindicated during the London Conference where the USA, the UK and other stake-holders clearly expressed the need to start peace process and realized that only military solution is not enough. The Taliban leadership refused to come on negotiating table as it reiterated its demand they could talk only after foreign forces leave the country.

There are some regional players who wish the Afghan situation remain worrisome however Pakistan is the one actor who sincerely needs a peaceful state on its western borders. After seeing the silver lining, Pakistan adopted two-pronged strategy – To ensure its role in peacemaking and to urge the Taliban leadership to join talks. It gained limited success as Allied forces in Afghanistan did not like to evict India from Afghanistan which Pakistan needs desperately because of its allegation that India is undermining security situation in FATA region and Baluchistan province from the soil of Afghanistan, a charge denied by India. Recent talks between American officials and Pakistani civil and military leadership addressed the issue and reports indicate that the Americans have partially agreed to Pakistani demands regarding its role in future setup of Afghanistan. Americans remained busy in assuring Pakistan its commitment to the region even after withdrawal of troops besides economic and military aid flow to Pakistan.

After getting concrete assurances from the Americans, Pakistan started pressurizing the Taliban leadership to join the reconciliation and re-integration process. By considering that in July 2011, the USA will start withdrawal of its troops from the country, the Taliban considered this weakness on part of the USA and NATO. However the Operation Moshtariq started in southern province of Helmend, district of Marjah on Feb 13, 2010, a district known to produce poppy crop, was the biggest push in last 9 years, which forced Taliban to re-think their strategy. This was one way of exerting pressure. The Other one was more subtle which came from Pakistan as senior leadership of Taliban, especially Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, second in command after Mullah Omar, was arrested by Pakistani security agencies. This was a clear message to reclusive Mullah Omer that refusal to meet Pakistani demands can be fatal for the Taliban leaders.

Unlike past, Pakistan has not put all eggs in basket of the Taliban as the fundamentalist group has lost its appeal in whole of the world including Pakistan from where it could have hoped to seek some support. Pakistan has decided to impress the Taliban leadership to join the peace process. After getting singled out, they have to grab whatever political support they are offered by Pakistan. They may see the face of reason soon, if not, then a military offensive by Gen. Stanley McCrystal’s forces in Kandhar province may soften them enough to take mature political decisions. Message from Pakistan to the Taliban is very loud and clear – join peace process before a fresh round of hostilities may cause colossal loss of life in coming summer.