The Pakistani Spectator

With the country engaged in war, the electoral process in Afghanistan never looked open and valid in the eyes of Pakistani leaders. Still, a country without the requisite ingredients of democracy such as political parties or a universally accepted constitution cannot have credible electoral process. Pakistan does wish for political stability but the events unfolding there after August 20 have belied those hopes. The anti-Taliban, non-Pashtun nationalities, mostly situated in North and West of the country, participated in the elections and the turnout was reasonably better than expected. But the new government in Kabul has not stabilized itself enough to be confident in considering negotiations with its opponents in the near future.

Every Pashtun is not necessarily a Taliban but most of Taliban are Pashtuns. So it is not possible to exclude them from the political process. Moreover, Karzai’s Pasthun base did not give him overwhelming support. Severe allegations of pre-poll and post-poll rigging by the opponents of the incumbent president have further undermined the credibility of the elections. It has now become irrelevant if Karzai will be announced winner of the September 17th poll or fails to win 51 % of the polled votes. Rather, what is becoming obvious that Afghanistan will plunge deeper into the constitutional crisis. At the basis of this analysis is the frame of mind prevailing amongst the rival candidates, especially Abdullah Abdullah who, in a recent interview to Daily Telegraph, commented that he was shocked by the scale of vote-rigging. He vowed to exhaust all legal avenues to counter “the state- engineered fraud.” Even if unsuccessful he won’t recognize the elections. “I think if the process doesn’t survive, then Afghanistan doesn’t survive.”

Hamid Karzai’s ambition to win at all costs was amply manifested when he

won over notorious drug lords, an un-holy alliance, vehemently criticized by
the western capitals. Since that did not deter him, the chances that he would adopt some measures to assuage the reservations by the rivals are very dim. Karzai’s exchange of hot words with Richard Holbrooke after his suggestion to go for a run off to make the process more credible clearly shows he is determined to win at ‘all costs’. Yet, posing himself as a brave nationalist who has the nerve to stand against the USA won’t win him the sympathy from the Pashtun majority.

There are two schools of thought in Pakistan about Afghanistan’s political future.

• Observers belonging to first group opine that the defeatist mindset of USA and ISAF forces and the disarray created in the wake of the polls would augur well for Pakistan as it would add significantly to its influence in Afghanistan . Despite criticism by the West, elements in Pakistan’s defense establishment did not sever entirely its relations with powerful Taliban factions. If USA and NATO withdraw from Afghanistan in twelve to sixteen months, it would further strengthen the Taliban. So it is in the national interest of Pakistan not to join the anti Taliban effort totally and unconditionally. Pakistan’s only bet in Afghanistan is on Pashtuns who have shared religious, cultural and economic bonds with their brethren in Pakistan. Demographic reality is that Pakistan hosts around 28 million Pashtuns while Aghanistan has 15 million of them. Irrespective of the conflict over the 2640 KM long Durand Line, separating two states, drawn in 1893 by the British rulers, that also resulted in Afghanistan’s vote against Pakistan’s entry to United Nations in 1947, the line had never practically separated Pashtuns dwelling on both sides of a porous border. Quoting many instances from the past this school of thought holds the opinion that Pakistan’s links with Taliban factions are a potential benefit even to the USA and the Western powers. For Pakistan is the only country that can facilitate an honorable exit by bringing all warring factions on the negotiating table. They believe that if Pakistan were to go all out against Taliban, its long-term interests on its western borders would be severely jeopardized. They wonder why the USA did not differentiate between Al-Qaida which has a global terror agenda and Taliban which is essentially nationalist in character.
• The other school of thought that is gaining strength even amongst powerful players in Pakistan’s defense establishment holds the views that the policy of having strategic depth in Afghanistan by siding with Pashtuns or Talibans has caused the worst loss to Pakistan in its history. The reign of terror unleashed by Taliban of Pakistan in killing thousands of civil and military personnel poses an existential threat to Pakistan. Despite the fact that Mullah Umar or Haqqani groups have never been directly involved in terrorists activities in Pakistan, they never reprimanded Thereek-e-Taliban, Pakistan (TTP), led by Bait Ullah Mehsood till his death or various other actors hailing from Swat, Mohmind, Khyber, Waziristan and Bajour areas. If Taliban win, it will rejuvenate TTP with horrific after-effects for Pakistan. It is alleged that the Taliban want to form the Islamic Emirates of Pakhtunistan, covering not only Pakhtun belts in Afghanistan but also huge parts of Pakistan. This school of thought therefore does not have any soft corner for Taliban and says that the Allied troops have not only to stay in Afghanistan until the mission is accomplished but it should make a concentrated effort to stabilize the political process in the country. Rejecting the concept of ‘strategic depth’ in Afghanistan, they say that Pakistan has to secure its own borders by leaving the issues across the Durand Line to Afghans and the Allied forces.

After facing two of the bloodiest months since October 2001, the growing

discontent in USA and NATO member countries, withdrawal is possible . Before

withdrawal, USA-led coalition has to make the arrangements termed as ‘the exit strategy’ by president Obama. Without Pakistan’s help, it is impossible to hold any meaningful dialogue which may involve all political and militant groups in Afghanistan. The myth of ‘Pakistani support to Taliban’ is unfounded. They are absolutely free from any compulsion from any country, including Pakistan, as was clearly highlighted by Mullah Omar’s deputy, Mullah Abdul Ghani Bardar in his recent interview with Newsweek. Increased number of troops will not win the war. USA and NATO should devise a new strategy to deal with the situation which should ensure active political involvement by Pakistan as a key player.